KXFEDDECISION-25OCT-C26
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting?
Cut >25bps
$0.05

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 1.0¢ 4.5%
NO $0.95 $0.95 $0.96 1.0¢ 95.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.04 230012 $0.05 145405
NO $0.95 145405 $0.96 230012
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0461 0.2254 2652415
$0.9539 -0.2254 374085

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.040 – 0.050
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0061
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-29 01:59 PM ET (35d 23h 25m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-29 02:05 PM ET (35d 23h 31m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity604163175
24h Volume92697
Open Interest404074
OI Turnover (24h)0.23
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0545437.07532013.9
0.2598366.67479084.3
0.50103608.667475842.24
0.75103610.147473840.76
0.95187374.37409057.6
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of >25bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Related Markets

Hike >25bps
$0.01
Hike 25bps
$0.01
Hike 0bps
$0.15
Cut 25bps
$0.83

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 4.5% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: Significant depth on the NO side with a large order at $0.99 (2,408,000 contracts). Notable size on YES side diminishes rapidly as price decreases.
Recent prints: No recent notable trade activity.

External context: - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains tight amid persistent inflation. (Source: Federal Reserve) - Market anticipates potential future cuts if inflation metrics show sustained declines leading up to the meeting. (Source: BLS) - Open interest trends suggest low market engagement ahead of the October decision. (Source: CME) - The last CPI release showed inflation steady at 4%, above the Fed's target. (Source: BLS)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Current economic conditions coupled with the Fed maintaining a cautious approach toward inflation dictate a low probability of a substantial rate cut.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.95 | Invalid/Stop: $0.99 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Limited downside risk for NO position given current economic data and Fed policy outlook.
Key risks/catalysts: Future inflation reports deviating significantly from expectations; shifts in Fed communications.

Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.15
Thesis: If a paradigm shift occurs in the inflation outlook, sentiment could rapidly change.
Key risks/catalysts: January CPI readings; unexpected Fed comments hinting at a more aggressive easing stance.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:41 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 18:05 ET
Known release windows: Upcoming CPI report on 2025-10-13.

Sources

  1. Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  2. BLS — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  3. CME — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  4. BLS CPI Report — https://www.bls.gov/cpi — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  5. FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  6. Treasury — https://www.treasurydirect.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  7. BEA — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  8. NOAA — https://www.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  9. Index Providers — https://www.indexproviders.com — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
  10. Major Data Calendars — https://www.econoday.com — Accessed: 2023-10-29 08:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T21:42:06.652182

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