KXFEDDECISION-25OCT-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2025 meeting?
Hike 0bps
$0.15

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 1.0¢ 14.5%
NO $0.85 $0.85 $0.86 1.0¢ 85.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.14 10807 $0.15 85871
NO $0.85 85871 $0.86 10807
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.1411 -0.7764 251661
$0.8589 0.7764 154281

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.140 – 0.150
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.02
Micro Pull ($) 0.0011
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-29 01:59 PM ET (36d 1h 18m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-29 02:05 PM ET (36d 1h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity516518775
24h Volume91828
Open Interest441067
OI Turnover (24h)0.21
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0519146.643864955.49
0.2577732.283806529.6
0.5085261.353800115.78
0.7585502.863798599.27
0.95124564.133775355.5
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Related Markets

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T16:40:05.594653

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