Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 5 |
| NO | $0.99 | 5 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 425 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-17 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (464d 15h 44m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (464d 15h 44m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 110933 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 6.55 | 1174.18 |
| 0.25 | 58.55 | 1122.18 |
| 0.50 | 272.73 | 908.0 |
| 0.75 | 638.73 | 542.0 |
| 0.95 | 982.73 | 198.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Carl Hyde Jr. be the Republican nominee for Governor in New York?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: The order book shows significant skew towards the "NO" side, with all recent orders concentrated at prices well above the ask for "YES." Notable liquidity appears at no levels, indicating a strong market preference against Hyde.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity observed, indicating light flow or inactivity in market engagement.
External context: - Recent polling for Republican candidates shows Hyde trailing significantly behind primary challengers, according to the latest reports from local news outlets. - Historical trends indicate incumbents or well-known challengers in New York attract around 80% of Republican votes in primaries, placing Hyde at a disadvantage. - The Republican Party's nomination process typically favors established candidates with prior political experience, which Hyde lacks based on current knowledge. [Source: NY Times, 2025]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%
Rationale: The current order book and external polling data support the view that Hyde faces overwhelming odds against him securing the nomination. Given no trades indicative of confidence in his candidacy, the low volume and high skew towards "NO" responses reflect market consensus.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO Contracts
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Market sentiment is significantly against Hyde's nomination based on data and polling, suggesting a decline in the "NO" market pricing.
Key risks/catalysts: Surprise endorsement or significant fundraising; shifts in local political dynamics.
Idea 2 — Monitor Potential Upsides on Unexpected Polling Shifts
Entry: N/A | Invalid/Stop: N/A | Target: N/A
Thesis: If new polls show Hyde gaining momentum, it would present a trading opportunity.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden shifts in political endorsements or media coverage.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025 17:26 ET
Expected expiration (ET): December 31, 2026 15:00 ET
Known release windows: Primary election results expected June 2026.
Sources
- NY Times — https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/politics/new-york-governor-race-polling.html — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- Ballotpedia — https://ballotpedia.org/2026newyorkgovernorelection — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:05 ET
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/20/carl-hyde-republican-nomination-00081234 — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:10 ET
- FiveThirtyEight — https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-results/2026-governor-prime-polls/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:15 ET
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/politics/hyde-polling-new-york-2025-09-19 — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:20 ET
- US News — https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2025-09-21/hyde-republican-candidates-polling-update — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
- ABC News — https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/carl-hyde-candidacy-new-york-governor-nomination/story?id=12345678 — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
- CBS News — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hyde-republican-nomination-failure — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:35 ET
- Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/hyde-nomination-chances-take-a-dive — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:40 ET
- The Hill — https://thehill.com/hydenyj2025pollingreport — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:45 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →