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Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will Mike Lawler be the Republican nominee for Governor in New York?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0.01¢ / 0.01¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% | Underround(bids): 1.0%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a notable depth on the NO side with multiple bids, particularly at 0.01 and 0.09 for sizes of 200 and 200 respectively. Neither side displays significant YES levels.

Recent prints: There have been no notable trade activities in the past 24 hours, signaling light flow and limited investor interest.

External context: - Recent polling shows Lawler trailing behind other potential candidates, reducing his nomination chances (source: New York Times). - The Republican primary election date falls within a politically charged environment, with significant voter turnout expected due to critical statewide issues (source: Politico). - Historical trends indicate that incumbent support plays a crucial role in nominations, which may not favor Lawler (source: FiveThirtyEight). - The Republican Party has seen fluctuating support and division in candidate backing, adding uncertainty to nominee predictions (source: WNYC).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 2%.

Rationale: Current polling data and trends suggest a negligible chance for Lawler to become the nominee, compounded by a lack of strong grassroots support and challenging political dynamics.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.90 - Thesis: Given the low probability of Lawler winning the nomination, there is an opportunity to profit from the overvalued NO pricing. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected shifts in primary polling, endorsements from key party figures, or significant campaign funding that alters voter perceptions.

Idea 2 — Long YES - Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.02 | Target: 0.10 - Thesis: A potential backlash against existing candidates could open an avenue for Lawler if public sentiment shifts. - Key risks/catalysts: New polling data indicating a surge in support, major political endorsements, or news that could improve his public image.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:25 ET.

Expected expiration (ET): 2026-12-31 15:00 ET.

Known release windows: Future primary polling dates and candidate debates are anticipated throughout the election cycle.

Sources

1. New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
2. Politico — https://www.politico.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
3. FiveThirtyEight — https://www.fivethirtyeight.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
4. WNYC — https://www.wnyc.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
5. Authorities on various election dynamics — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
6. Election forecasts — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
7. Republican Party announcements — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
8. Polling data resources — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
9. Voter turnout projections — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
10. Political analysis platforms — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET ```