KXINXY-25DEC31-B6300
Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025?
6,200 to 6,399.99
$0.07
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | $0.07 | $0.07 | 1.0¢ | 6.5% |
| NO | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0.94 | 1.0¢ | 93.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | 100 | $0.07 | 100000 |
| NO | $0.93 | 100000 | $0.94 | 100 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.06 | -0.998 | 102390 |
| $0.94 | 0.998 | 102102 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.060 – 0.070 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.02 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.01 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-11-05 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (99d 21h 46m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-31 01:00 PM ET (100d 0h 46m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 106503740 |
| 24h Volume | 5316 |
| Open Interest | 183363 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 4388.7 | 923227.3 |
| 0.25 | 12134.77 | 915481.23 |
| 0.50 | 12645.66 | 914970.34 |
| 0.75 | 25637.41 | 901978.59 |
| 0.95 | 177645.48 | 788028.47 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value for December 31, 2025 is between 6200-6399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET after the release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2025.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-22T17:13:10.778962
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