KXLEAVEADMIN-26-KPAT
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump Administration this year?
:: Director of the FBI
$0.09

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 2.0¢ 8.0%
NO $0.91 $0.92 $0.93 2.0¢ 92.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.07 0 $0.09 0
NO $0.91 0 $0.93 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.08 0.0 0
$0.92 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.070 – 0.090
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)200

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity2749563
24h Volume4045
Open Interest97455
OI Turnover (24h)0.04
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Kash Patel leaves, or it is announced they will leave, their office before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must leave their office to resolve the market to Yes. For example, if they accept another role and leave their current role, the market resolves to Yes. If they accept another role without leaving their current role, then the market does not resolve to Yes.

Related Markets

:: Deputy Director of the FBI
$0.16
:: Secretary of Commerce
$0.05
:: White House Press Secretary
$0.06
:: Director of the FBI
$0.09
:: Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
$0.03
:: Secretary of State
$0.05
:: Attorney General
$0.06
:: Secretary of Defense
$0.06
:: Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing
$0.08
:: Secretary of Health and Human Services
$0.08
:: Secretary of the Treasury
$0.05
:: Director of National Intelligence
$0.07
:: White House Border Czar
$0.09

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T14:06:18.782812

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