KXLEAVEADMIN-26-RKEN
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump Administration this year?
:: Secretary of Health and Human Services
$0.08

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.05 $0.07 $0.08 3.0¢ 6.5%
NO $0.92 $0.94 $0.95 3.0¢ 93.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.05 0 $0.08 0
NO $0.92 0 $0.95 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.07 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.050 – 0.080
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)300

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) 2.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity5689852
24h Volume1111
Open Interest33243
OI Turnover (24h)0.03
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves, or it is announced they will leave, their office before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must leave their office to resolve the market to Yes. For example, if they accept another role and leave their current role, the market resolves to Yes. If they accept another role without leaving their current role, then the market does not resolve to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T14:06:19.893497

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