KXLLM1-25DEC31-A
Best AI at year end?
Claude:: Anthropic
$0.04

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 1.0¢ 3.5%
NO $0.96 $0.96 $0.97 1.0¢ 96.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.03 5001 $0.04 4950
NO $0.96 4950 $0.97 5001
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.035 0.0051 12008
$0.965 -0.0051 31590

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.030 – 0.040
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.01
Micro Pull ($) -0.005
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-11-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 10h 14m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 10h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity24108137
24h Volume5889
Open Interest340299
OI Turnover (24h)0.02
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05438.65229088.23
0.256993.16222533.72
0.506998.66222528.22
0.7510600.21218926.67
0.9537620.95197202.18
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A tie would resolve to No.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:03.725659

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