KXLLM1-25DEC31-ALI
Best AI in Dec 2025?
Qwen:: Alibaba
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 1.0¢ 1.5%
NO $0.98 $0.98 $0.99 1.0¢ 98.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 652 $0.02 61256
NO $0.98 61256 $0.99 652
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0101 -0.9789 652
$0.9899 0.9789 67059

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.020
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0001
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-11 05:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 10h 14m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 10h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity2216597
24h Volume2716
Open Interest144152
OI Turnover (24h)0.02
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.051463.6420046.41
0.253343.6318166.42
0.503348.2718161.78
0.753348.2718161.78
0.953960.8717568.18
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then all the strikes for this market will resolve to No. This event is not affected by the amendment that is effective in April 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:11.443624

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