KXLLM1-25DEC31-GOOG
Best AI at year end?
Gemini:: Google
$0.65

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.63 $0.64 $0.65 2.0¢ 64.0%
NO $0.35 $0.36 $0.37 2.0¢ 36.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.63 7047 $0.65 3490
NO $0.35 3490 $0.37 7047
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6434 0.3376 7322
$0.3566 -0.3376 8690

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.630 – 0.650
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.02
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.02
Micro Pull ($) 0.0034
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-11-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 12h 7m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 12h 7m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity25778436
24h Volume9543
Open Interest357765
OI Turnover (24h)0.03
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.051026.72183449.01
0.251097.88183377.85
0.504251.33180428.4
0.7533649.33156236.9
0.9567458.57128763.91
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A tie would resolve to No.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:52:54.655105

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