KXOSCARNOMACTO-26-JP
2026 Best Actor Oscar nominations?
Jesse Plemons:: Bugonia
$0.4

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.36 $0.38 $0.4 4.0¢ 38.0%
NO $0.6 $0.62 $0.64 4.0¢ 62.0%
Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.36 250 $0.4 5000
NO $0.6 5000 $0.64 250
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.3619 -0.9048 5307
$0.6381 0.9048 5000

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.360 – 0.400
Band Width0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.0
NO Edge (ticks)-2.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0181
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-05-15 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-12-31 07:00 PM ET (463d 19h 14m)
Expected Expiration2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 10h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity11376218
24h Volume410
Open Interest16673
OI Turnover (24h)0.02
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05328.8993456.11
0.25911.092895.5
0.504952.5488838.96
0.756642.1687128.09
0.9512723.3882386.82
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Jesse Plemons has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:06.171953

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