KXOSCARNOMACTO-26-WAG
2026 Best Actor Oscar nominations?
Wagner Moura:: The Secret Agent
$0.36
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.33 | $0.34 | $0.36 | 3.0¢ | 34.5% |
| NO | $0.64 | $0.66 | $0.67 | 3.0¢ | 65.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.33 | 25 | $0.36 | 5000 |
| NO | $0.64 | 5000 | $0.67 | 25 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3301 | -0.99 | 5025 |
| $0.6699 | 0.99 | 5000 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.330 – 0.360 |
| Band Width | 0.030 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0099 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-22 01:30 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-12-31 07:00 PM ET (463d 19h 12m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 10h 12m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3612632 |
| 24h Volume | 53 |
| Open Interest | 1689 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 191.2 | 20322.1 |
| 0.25 | 1012.15 | 19516.4 |
| 0.50 | 6061.24 | 14891.56 |
| 0.75 | 6537.58 | 13975.72 |
| 0.95 | 6537.58 | 13975.72 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Wagner Moura has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:47:03.339573
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