KXSENATEKYR-26-ABAR
Wil Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.46

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.33 $0.4 $0.46 13.0¢ 39.5%
NO $0.54 $0.6 $0.67 13.0¢ 60.5%
Overround (asks): 13.0% Underround (bids): 13.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.33 51 $0.46 35
NO $0.54 35 $0.67 51
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.4071 0.186 0
$0.5929 -0.186 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.330 – 0.460
Band Width0.130

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-6.5
NO Edge (ticks)-6.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0071
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-04-01 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 14m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity237131
24h Volume0
Open Interest5855
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.02489.58
0.2520.02489.58
0.501282.551227.03
0.751652.55857.03
0.952213.58296.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Andy Barr wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Wil Robert Stivers be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.01
Wil Ryan Quarles be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.01
Wil Kelly Craft be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.01
Wil Scott Jennings be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.06
Wil Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.17
Wil Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.49

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:45:25.607245

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →