KXSENATEKYR-26-DCAM
Wil Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?
$0.17

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.03 $0.1 $0.17 14.0¢ 10.0%
NO $0.83 $0.9 $0.97 14.0¢ 90.0%
Overround (asks): 14.0% Underround (bids): 14.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.03 66 $0.17 36
NO $0.83 36 $0.97 66
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.1206 0.2941 0
$0.8794 -0.2941 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.030 – 0.170
Band Width0.140

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-7.0
NO Edge (ticks)-7.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0206
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-04-01 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 16m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 16m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity155729
24h Volume0
Open Interest2062
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.053.981350.36
0.2598.21256.14
0.50250.21104.14
0.75781.34573.0
0.951156.34198.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Daniel Cameron wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Kentucky Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:43:43.651834

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