KXTOKENLAUNCHOPENSEA-26JAN01
Will OpenSea launch a token before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.9

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.84 $0.87 $0.9 6.0¢ 87.0%
NO $0.1 $0.13 $0.16 6.0¢ 13.0%
Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.84 50 $0.9 32
NO $0.1 32 $0.16 50
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.8766 0.2195 250
$0.1234 -0.2195 108

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.8400.900
Band Width0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)-3.0
Vig (bps/h)600

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.04
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.01
Micro Pull ($) 0.0066
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-27 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (99d 2h 1m)
Expected Expiration2025-08-27 10:00 AM ET (-27d 12h 57m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity1103415
24h Volume63
Open Interest1963
OI Turnover (24h)0.03
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0596.01284.99
0.2596.01284.99
0.5096.01284.99
0.75246.531134.46
0.951380.99484.5
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:57:31.321691

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