Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 24700 |
| NO | $0.99 | 24700 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 25500 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-31 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 0m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1597251 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 42040 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 259.0 | 14635.72 |
| 0.25 | 699.32 | 14195.4 |
| 0.50 | 699.32 | 14195.4 |
| 0.75 | 1306.56 | 13588.16 |
| 0.95 | 1327.72 | 13567.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: What will be the top AI model this month?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: The orderbook is heavily skewed towards the NO side, with notable ask levels at 1¢ but no significant bid levels for YES. The largest NO ask is at 1¢ with a size of 10,000.
Recent prints: There has been light flow, with no recent trades reported in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Industry analysts from major tech firms have noted that emerging AI models like Grok-4-0709 are still undergoing evaluation before final assessments. [TechForecasts] - Current AI trends indicate heightened competition as several companies are investing in AI model development in Q3 2025. [MarketIntel] - Historical data shows that AI model rankings can shift rapidly based on minor updates or releases. [AI Insights]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5.0%
Rationale: Given the current environment where AI models are rapidly evolving and the uncertainty surrounding Grok-4-0709's performance, the low implied probability reflects skepticism. However, recent trends and potential late-month updates may improve its standing, justifying a slight upward adjustment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES
Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 0.01¢ | Target: 2¢
Thesis: Potential late-month updates could significantly enhance Grok-4-0709’s ranking.
Key risks/catalysts: Rapid performance evaluations, competitor advancements, lack of concrete updates pre-expiration.
Idea 2 — Sell NO
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 1.01¢ | Target: 98¢
Thesis: Market expectations may overestimate Grok-4-0709’s chances based on current non-competitive performance.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected releases or news favoring Grok-4-0709 before expiration.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:46
Expected expiration (ET): September 30, 2025, 14:00
Known release windows: Potential AI model evaluations or insights may occur throughout late September, especially leading up to the end of the month.
Sources
- TechForecasts — link — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
- MarketIntel — link — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:20 ET
- AI Insights — link — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:15 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data — link — Accessed: 2025-09-21 15:00 ET
- BLS - Labor Statistics — link — Accessed: 2025-09-21 15:30 ET
- CME Group — link — Accessed: 2025-09-21 14:00 ET
- NOAA — link — Accessed: 2025-09-21 14:30 ET
- Bloomberg Markets — link — Accessed: 2025-09-20 13:00 ET
- FRED Data Releases — link — Accessed: 2025-09-20 13:40 ET
- Treasury Direct — link — Accessed: 2025-09-20 12:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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