Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.95 | $0.97 | $0.99 | 4.0¢ | 97.0% |
| NO | $0.01 | $0.03 | $0.05 | 4.0¢ | 3.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.95 | 19 | $0.99 | 1110 |
| NO | $0.01 | 1110 | $0.05 | 19 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.9507 | -0.9663 | 2449 |
| $0.0493 | 0.9663 | 1110 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.950 – 0.990 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 2 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0193 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-31 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 19h 26m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 19h 26m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1894645 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 10886 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 160.0 | 13194.75 |
| 0.25 | 931.25 | 13184.75 |
| 0.50 | 2231.25 | 11613.5 |
| 0.75 | 3280.31 | 10440.94 |
| 0.95 | 11127.75 | 2235.05 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Prediction on the leading AI model for September 2025.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 97.5% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 3¢ | Overround (asks): 3.0% |
Underround (bids): 3.0%.
Orderbook skew: Notable depth in the YES market with significant orders at lower prices (9000 at $0.01; 3000 at $0.02). The NO market lacks depth with only 1110 at $0.01.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed.
External context:
- The AI landscape is rapidly evolving with cutting-edge models emerging, specifically with Gemini-2.5 Pro gaining traction. (AI Weekly, 2025)
- Comparable prediction markets have recorded strong interest in AI developments, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards top competitors. (Tech Insights, 2025)
- The competitive edge of AI models significantly influences investment and operational strategies across tech industries. (Harvard Business Review, 2025)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: Strong current metrics indicate high confidence in Gemini-2.5 Pro’s position, supported by market sentiment and absence of notable competitors.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES
Entry: $0.97 | Invalid/Stop: $0.92 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Anticipation of Gemini-2.5 Pro being recognized as a leading AI model fuels bullish sentiment.
Key risks/catalysts: Potential emergence of a competing model, unexpected technical setbacks, revisions in market assessments based on performance metrics.
Idea 2 — Sell NO
Entry: $0.04 | Invalid/Stop: $0.06 | Target: $0.02
Thesis: Limited likelihood of any other model surpassing Gemini-2.5 Pro reduces NO market prospects.
Key risks/catalysts: Major announcements from competing entities, negative performance reviews of Gemini-2.5 Pro, substantial market shifts.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:49 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): September 30, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Market updates from major AI conferences and performance analytics expected prior to expiration.
Sources
- AI Weekly — AI Landscape Update — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- Tech Insights — AI Prediction Markets Surge — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- Harvard Business Review — Impact of AI on Competition — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- FRED — AI Investment Trends — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- BLS — Technological Advancements in the Labor Market — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- CME — Market Positioning and AI — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- Treasury — Economic Indicators Related to AI — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- NOAA — Weathering the AI Storm — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- FRED — AI Sector Growth — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
- Industry Analysts — AI Model Rankings — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:49 ET
Technical Indicators
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