KXTROPSTORM-25DEC01-T12
Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2025?
12
$0.71

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.64 $0.68 $0.71 7.0¢ 67.5%
NO $0.29 $0.33 $0.36 7.0¢ 32.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.64 500 $0.71 2
NO $0.29 2 $0.36 500
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.7097 0.992 1000
$0.2903 -0.992 176

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.640 – 0.710
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.03
ΔSpread (¢) 6.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.02
Micro Pull ($) 0.0297
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-04-11 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-01 11:59 PM ET (69d 0h 13m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-02 10:00 AM ET (69d 10h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity1630130
24h Volume2487
Open Interest4821
OI Turnover (24h)0.52
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05144.442414.19
0.25211.552347.08
0.50291.862266.77
0.751789.68768.95
0.951899.28697.35
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 12 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2025 and December 01, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2025. To be clear, a storm is counted even if it is unnamed as long as it occurs in the relevant time period (January 1, 2025 and December 01, 2025) and has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or more.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:12.143425

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