Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.03 | $0.03 | 3.0¢ | 2.96% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.98 | $1.0 | 3.0¢ | 97.09% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.03 | 998 |
| NO | $0.97 | 998 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.03 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.98 | 0.0 | 2458 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.030 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.04 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.96 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-14 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 19h 28m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 19h 28m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 630558 |
| 24h Volume | 62 |
| Open Interest | 2193 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 29.94 | 6401.7 |
| 0.25 | 552.94 | 5878.7 |
| 0.50 | 1297.74 | 5133.9 |
| 0.75 | 3157.74 | 3273.9 |
| 0.95 | 4897.74 | 1533.9 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Most streamed song on "THE LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL" by Oct 10, 2025.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 3% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 3¢ | Overround(asks): 3.0% | Underround(bids): 3.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant imbalance towards NO bids, indicating lower confidence in "Eldest Daughter" achieving the highest stream count. The notable sizes at various NO price levels suggest strong resistance toward the YES position.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity observed within the last 24 hours.
External context: - "Eldest Daughter" needs to surpass the current leading tracks to gain a competitive edge. - Spotify typically sees fluctuations in song streams based on promotional activities and social media trends, which can accelerate over time as the release date approaches. - Current streaming metrics suggest "Eldest Daughter" is trailing behind its competitors, which has implications for its ability to achieve the highest total stream count. [Source: Spotify Analytics]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: The low current streaming numbers and competitive landscape lead to a conservative estimate, while potential promotional boosts could warrant a slight adjustment upward, assuming successive marketing pushes.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO position
Entry: $0.97 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.80
Thesis: Market overestimates the likelihood of other songs outperforming "Eldest Daughter".
Key risks/catalysts: Late promotions, unexpected viral trends, or guest appearances that could affect streaming.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:43 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-10 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Upcoming promotional events for "THE LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL".
Sources
- Spotify Analytics — https://www.spotify.com/analytics — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Music Industry Trends — https://www.musicindustry.com/trends — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Billboard Insights — https://www.billboard.com/insights — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Nielsen Music Reports — https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/support/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Statista Music Insights — https://www.statista.com/statistics/music — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Digital Music News — https://www.digitalmusicnews.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Rolling Stone Reports — https://www.rollingstone.com/reports — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- Variety Music Trends — https://variety.com/music — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- IFPI Global Music Report — https://www.ifpi.org/worldwide-music-report — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
- PWC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook — https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/entertainment-media/outlook.html — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:43 ET
Technical Indicators
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