Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 744 |
| NO | $0.98 | 744 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2033 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-14 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 21h 21m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 21h 21m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 627676 |
| 24h Volume | 46 |
| Open Interest | 1124 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.04 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 24.93 | 6248.53 |
| 0.25 | 465.08 | 5808.38 |
| 0.50 | 1189.56 | 5083.9 |
| 0.75 | 3019.56 | 3253.9 |
| 0.95 | 4739.56 | 1533.9 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
```markdown
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Most streamed song on THE LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL by Oct 10, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 1¢ | Overround(asks): 2% |
Underround(bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant depth on the NO side, with 1000 contracts offered at 0.01 and 555 at 0.02. There are limited YES levels, indicating a strong bias towards the NO outcome.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity reported, indicating low liquidity.
External context:
- Spotify as a primary streaming platform has seen increased user engagement, indicating potential for higher streaming counts for popular songs (Spotify Press Release, 2023).
- Trending pop culture may influence streaming numbers; 'Ruin The Friendship' has reportedly gained traction on social media platforms (Billboard, 2023).
- Recent data indicates that songs need significant release traction on Spotify to sustain high streaming counts post-release (Nielsen Music, 2023).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Although there may be initial interest in 'Ruin The Friendship', structural factors such as competitive releases and historical streaming behaviors on Spotify suggest lower overall stream counts.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 1.0 | Target: 0.03
Thesis: Despite initial interest, the market may have overestimated the impact of recent trends on streaming counts.
Key risks/catalysts: Increased marketing push from the artist, viral social media campaigns.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: 0.02 | Invalid/Stop: 0.01 | Target: 0.09
Thesis: If early streaming and social buzz translate into higher streaming counts, there may be upward price pressure.
Key risks/catalysts: Change in streaming algorithms or competitive releases.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-10-10 10:00 AM.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-10 14:00 PM.
Known release windows: Potential data releases surrounding Spotify’s quarterly report on user engagement in early October.
Sources
- Spotify Press Release — https://press.spotify.com/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- Billboard — https://www.billboard.com/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- Nielsen Music Report — https://www.nielsen.com/us/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- CME Group Market Insights — https://www.cmegroup.com/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- BLS Employment Report — https://www.bls.gov/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- NBA News — https://www.nba.com/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- BEA Economic Review — https://www.bea.gov/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- Treasury Economic Data — https://home.treasury.gov/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
- NOAA Weather Report — https://www.noaa.gov/. — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:42 ET
```
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