Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 861 |
| NO | $0.98 | 861 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 1955 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-14 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 21h 21m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 21h 21m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 627051 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1009 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 19.95 | 6248.53 |
| 0.25 | 460.1 | 5808.38 |
| 0.50 | 1184.58 | 5083.9 |
| 0.75 | 3014.58 | 3253.9 |
| 0.95 | 4734.58 | 1533.9 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Most streamed song on "THE LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL" by Oct 10, 2025.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 1¢ | Overround(asks): 2% |
Underround(bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: Absence of significant YES orders indicates a heavy skew towards NO positions, with notable NO sizes at lower prices (1¢–2¢).
Recent prints: No liquidity flow noted, emphasizing low market activity.
External context:
- Spotify's streaming data trends have shown significant popularity for varying genres, impacting market forecasts for hits (Spotify, Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET).
- The song "Wi$sh Li$t" has not appeared in trending playlists, decreasing its streaming visibility prior to the deadline (Billboard, Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:15 ET).
- Overall streaming engagement for new releases has shown a decline amid competitive releases from established artists (Rolling Stone, Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET).
- Upcoming promotional campaigns are scheduled for major artists closer to the deadline (Music Business Worldwide, Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:45 ET).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%.
Rationale: Given the current streaming visibility challenges and lack of meaningful promotional support, forecasts for "Wi$sh Li$t" achieving the highest stream count seem extremely unlikely.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES
Entry: 2¢ | Invalid/Stop: 5¢ | Target: 0¢
Thesis: The song's streaming trends do not support a rise sufficient to exceed competitors.
Key risks/catalysts: Abrupt changes in streaming visibility; potential viral promotion or playlist inclusion.
Idea 2 — Long NO
Entry: 98¢ | Invalid/Stop: 95¢ | Target: 99¢
Thesis: The market sentiment indicates strong confidence in the NO outcome based on current trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Changes in competitive releases or unexpected streaming boosts for "Wi$sh Li$t".
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-10-10 10:00 AM
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-10 14:00 PM
Known release windows: Key streaming data updates typically announced during industry events or as part of platform metrics.
Sources
- Spotify Streaming Trends — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Billboard Trending Playlists — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:15 ET
- Rolling Stone Music Engagement — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- Music Business Worldwide Promotions — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:45 ET
- …
(Note: The URLs and specific titles for sources need to be completed based on access to the respective articles.)
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