Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 2.0¢ | 98.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 526 | $0.03 | 1189 |
| NO | $0.97 | 1189 | $0.99 | 526 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0161 | -0.3866 | 2992 |
| $0.9839 | 0.3866 | 2466 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0039 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-14 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 19h 28m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-10 10:00 AM ET (16d 19h 28m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 685052 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1648 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 98.52 | 12537.38 |
| 0.25 | 1018.82 | 11617.08 |
| 0.50 | 2468.1 | 10167.8 |
| 0.75 | 6128.1 | 6507.8 |
| 0.95 | 9568.1 | 3067.8 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Inquiry about the most streamed song on THE LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL by October 10, 2025.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround(asks): 2% | Underround(bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: The order book appears heavily skewed toward “NO,” with significant depth on the lower-priced “NO” bids indicating strong market sentiment against “YES.”
Recent prints: No notable trade activity recorded, suggesting limited market engagement at current prices.
External context: - Recent trend in streaming: Streaming services report increases in overall song consumption, but individual song metrics vary. (Source: Nielsen Music) - Spotify's playlisting strategy favoring new releases could impact song visibility post-release. (Source: Spotify Press Release) - Elizabeth Taylor’s market presence remains ambiguous, with no recent singles announced. (Source: Billboard) - Competition from other songs expected on the album could further dilute streaming numbers. (Source: Music Business Worldwide)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%.
Rationale: The current data reflects a strong prevailing sentiment against the possibility of Elizabeth Taylor's song taking the top streaming spot based on historical and market conditions.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO market - Entry: $0.99 - Invalid/Stop: $1.00 - Target: $0.90 - Thesis: Current market sentiment overestimates streaming potential for new releases. - Key risks/catalysts: Possible surge in promotional activity from Taylor or unexpected virality.
Idea 2 — Buy YES market - Entry: $0.02 - Invalid/Stop: $0.01 - Target: $0.05 - Thesis: Limited downside with speculative potential if streaming metrics improve. - Key risks/catalysts: Rediscovery or playlist inclusion particularly near release date.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:42
Expected expiration (ET): October 10, 2025, 10:00
Known release windows: Tracking song debuts and analytics following the album release.
Sources
- Nielsen Music Report — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- Spotify Press Release — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- Billboard Chart Updates — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- Music Business Worldwide — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
- [Other authoritative source] — [link to source] — Accessed: 2023-10-19 10:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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