KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-26-MAR
2026 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?
Margery Simkin:: Avatar: Fire and Ash
$0.12

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.07 $0.12 10.0¢ 7.0%
NO $0.88 $0.93 $0.98 10.0¢ 93.0%
Overround (asks): 10.0% Underround (bids): 10.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 25 $0.12 25
NO $0.88 25 $0.98 25
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.07 0.0 0
$0.93 0.0 25

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.020 – 0.120
Band Width0.100

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.0
NO Edge (ticks)-5.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-06-19 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 10h 11m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-22 10:00 AM ET (120d 10h 11m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity34846
24h Volume0
Open Interest108
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.5810.04
0.2550.5760.04
0.50161.5649.04
0.75402.54408.0
0.95566.54244.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Margery Simkin has been nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:21.465595

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