KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-26-NIN
2026 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?
Nina Gold:: Hamnet
$0.75
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.65 | $0.7 | $0.75 | 10.0¢ | 70.0% |
| NO | $0.25 | $0.3 | $0.35 | 10.0¢ | 30.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.65 | 25 | $0.75 | 25 |
| NO | $0.25 | 25 | $0.35 | 25 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.7 | 0.0 | 25 |
| $0.3 | 0.0 | 25 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.650 – 0.750 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.7 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 10.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.59 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-23 05:57 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 10h 11m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-22 10:00 AM ET (120d 10h 11m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 155688 |
| 24h Volume | 225 |
| Open Interest | 225 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 1.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 1.0 | 1162.86 |
| 0.25 | 92.74 | 1071.12 |
| 0.50 | 212.74 | 1001.12 |
| 0.75 | 431.74 | 750.87 |
| 0.95 | 820.06 | 381.8 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Nina Gold has been nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
**Clarification 09/23/2025: If a strike lists two casting directors (e.g., “Jane Doe & John Smith”), the strike will resolve Yes only if that exact pair is officially credited as the nominees.
If only one of the individuals from a listed pair is nominated separately, the strike with the pair will resolve No.
If a strike lists only an individual (e.g., “John Smith”), the strike will resolve Yes if that individual is officially credited as a nominee, whether alone or as part of a credited pair.**
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:34.071648
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