KXWEALTHY-25-EM
Wealthiest person in the world at year-end?
Elon Musk
$0.87

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.83 $0.85 $0.87 4.0¢ 85.0%
NO $0.13 $0.15 $0.17 4.0¢ 15.0%
Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.83 0 $0.87 0
NO $0.13 0 $0.17 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.85 0.0 6377
$0.15 0.0 1306

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.830 – 0.870
Band Width0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.0
NO Edge (ticks)-2.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.02
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.03
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-11-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 18h 42m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 18h 42m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity85819161
24h Volume2727
Open Interest46716
OI Turnover (24h)0.06
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.058985.428650.98
0.2510861.3627025.02
0.5011688.2126443.17
0.7513341.8924294.49
0.9532450.745185.64
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Elon Musk is the wealthiest person in the world on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Mark Zuckerberg
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Larry Ellison
$0.18

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T20:17:39.618667

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