KXWEALTHY-25-WB
Wealthiest person in the world at year-end?
Warren Buffett
$0.04

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.03 $0.04 3.0¢ 2.5%
NO $0.96 $0.97 $0.99 3.0¢ 97.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 376 $0.04 153
NO $0.96 153 $0.99 376
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0313 0.4216 1329
$0.9687 -0.4216 953

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.040
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0013
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-04-03 02:31 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 18h 35m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (98d 18h 35m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity10675703
24h Volume0
Open Interest1368
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0516.0213301.18
0.25128.0213189.18
0.50128.0213189.18
0.75129.12213188.06
0.957493.56212156.32
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Warren Buffett is the wealthiest person in the world on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T20:24:05.656234

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