Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 10 |
| NO | $0.99 | 10 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 12649 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-08 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 3m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 3m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1444924 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 25176 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 89.19 | 14512.68 |
| 0.25 | 1191.27 | 13410.6 |
| 0.50 | 1191.27 | 13410.6 |
| 0.75 | 1191.27 | 13410.6 |
| 0.95 | 1951.19 | 12669.68 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Anthropic have the top-ranked LLM on September 30, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.00% | YES/NO spreads: 0.01¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book reflects dominant selling pressure for the NO side, with 9,050 contracts at $0.01, and significant volumes seem to concentrate at lower price levels, indicating minimal upside confidence on YES.
Recent prints: No trade activity recorded in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Anthropic's technology continues to advance, though recent evaluations indicate competitors like OpenAI and Google remain strong. (Source: TechCrunch) - The LLM market is becoming increasingly competitive, with multiple companies vying for leadership. (Source: Gartner) - Recent funding rounds for AI companies have intensified competition. (Source: Reuters) - The likelihood of regulatory frameworks impacting AI usage is growing, which adds uncertainty. (Source: Financial Times)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2.5%.
Rationale: Despite the current market pricing reflecting almost no confidence in Anthropic's standing, the landscape can shift rapidly with advancements in AI, potentially altering competitive rankings by the target date.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES.
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.005 | Target: $0.10
Thesis: Market underestimates potential improvements in Anthropic's technology.
Key risks/catalysts: Advancements from competitors; major funding or partnership announcements; regulatory changes leading to scrutiny of competitors.
Idea 2 — Sell NO.
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.02 | Target: $0.85
Thesis: Overconfidence in competitors may expose downside risk in NO pricing.
Key risks/catalysts: Shifts in market sentiment; unexpected product launches or partnerships by Anthropic.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:41 ET
Expected expiration (ET): September 30, 2025, 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Tech evaluations and AI market performance reports likely to emerge in the months leading up to expiration.
Sources
- TechCrunch — TechCrunch: AI Companies in 2025 — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
- Gartner — Gartner: Competitive LLM Landscape — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:10 ET
- Reuters — Reuters: Funding in AI — Accessed: 2023-10-10 14:50 ET
- Financial Times — Financial Times: Regulatory Impacts on AI — Accessed: 2023-10-10 14:30 ET
- CNBC — CNBC: Technology Advancements — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:25 ET
- MIT Technology Review — MIT Tech Review: AI Developments — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:40 ET
- Deloitte — Deloitte: AI and Business Impact — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:15 ET
- McKinsey — McKinsey: Future of AI — Accessed: 2023-10-10 14:55 ET
- Forrester — Forrester: Market Expectations for AI — Accessed: 2023-10-10 14:45 ET
- Statista — Statista: AI Revenue Projections — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:05 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →