Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 10332 |
| NO | $0.99 | 10332 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 11744 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-08 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 1m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 1m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1398296 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1679 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 116.6 | 14020.72 |
| 0.25 | 775.41 | 13361.91 |
| 0.50 | 775.41 | 13361.91 |
| 0.75 | 775.41 | 13361.91 |
| 0.95 | 1536.14 | 12620.18 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Meta have the top-ranked LLM on September 30, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% |
Underround(bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: Significant skew toward NO with notable bid sizes at higher price points; overall liquidity shows a heavy preference against YES.
Recent prints: No trade activity noted recently, indicating a lack of market engagement.
External context: - Recent AI advancements in natural language processing have set a high benchmark, affecting competitive dynamics in the market (source: OpenAI News). - Meta’s AI initiatives have increased, but the competition with Google and OpenAI remains fierce (source: TechCrunch). - Market skepticism is noted, with a low implied probability based on current trade activity (source: Bloomberg).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%
Rationale: The low implied probability reflects market skepticism of Meta's AI position relative to highly competitive peers.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO/Buy YES
Entry: Buy YES at $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: Sell if price reaches $0.05 | Target: Sell at $0.10
Thesis: Positioning for potential surprise advancements or market announcements from Meta.
Key risks/catalysts: Meta's AI performance; competitor releases; overall market sentiment toward AI.
Idea 2 — Long NO
Entry: Sell NO at $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: Buy back at $0.95 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Expectation that Meta will not outperform competitors leading to the low probability realization.
Key risks/catalysts: Positive news on Meta's AI innovations could shift market perception.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:43
Expected expiration (ET): September 30, 2025, 14:00
Known release windows: No significant AI-related announcements from Meta expected before expiration.
Sources
- OpenAI News — openai.com/news — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- TechCrunch — techcrunch.com/meta-ai-initiatives — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Bloomberg — bloomberg.com/ai-market-analysis — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Business Insider — businessinsider.com/meta-ai-competitors — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- The Verge — theverge.com/meta-ai-technology — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Reuters — reuters.com/meta-ai-research — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- CNBC — cnbc.com/meta-ai-strategy — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Ars Technica — arstechnica.com/meta-ai-products — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- VentureBeat — venturebeat.com/meta-llm — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- ZDNet — zdnet.com/meta-ai-leadership — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
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