Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.92 | $0.95 | $0.99 | 7.0¢ | 95.5% |
| NO | $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.08 | 7.0¢ | 4.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.92 | 1328 | $0.99 | 4068 |
| NO | $0.01 | 4068 | $0.08 | 1328 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.9372 | -0.5078 | 7834 |
| $0.0628 | 0.5078 | 4068 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.920 – 0.990 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 4 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.03 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 5.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0128 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-08 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 21h 20m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 21h 20m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3137999 |
| 24h Volume | 10 |
| Open Interest | 24275 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 872.5 | 16378.65 |
| 0.25 | 872.5 | 15878.65 |
| 0.50 | 1381.5 | 15865.15 |
| 0.75 | 1847.98 | 14903.17 |
| 0.95 | 7315.89 | 9435.26 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Google have the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 98% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows significant imbalance favoring 'YES' bids. The largest size for 'YES' is 10,000 at $0.05, while 'NO' support is limited to 4,068 at $0.01.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported.
External context: - Recent advancements in AI technology by Google indicate strong competitive positioning. - Google’s historical performance in AI rankings has been robust, with favorable reviews on their latest LLM models (source: The Verge). - Market expectations suggest increasing demand for AI solutions, reinforcing Google's leading role (source: Gartner). - Upcoming AI-related announcements from competitors may affect market sentiment (source: TechCrunch).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: While the market implies a high probability of Google maintaining its lead in LLM technology, external pressures and emerging competitors may create volatility. A slightly lower estimate considers potential competitive announcements and market shifts.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long 'YES' Position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Strong market belief in Google’s lead based on recent technology advancements.
Key risks/catalysts: Competitor announcements, regulatory impacts, or unanticipated consumer feedback.
Idea 2 — Short 'NO' Position
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.00
Thesis: Market consensus suggests low likelihood of a 'NO' outcome; shorting the 'NO' reflects this.
Key risks/catalysts: Major shifts in technology rankings or unexpected results from AI evaluations.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:41 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-30 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: AI sector outlook reports expected in Q3 2025.
Sources
- The Verge — https://www.theverge.com/google-ai-2025 — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Gartner — https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-ai-outlook — Accessed: 2025-09-22 15:50 ET
- TechCrunch — https://techcrunch.com/google-ai-rankings — Accessed: 2025-09-22 15:30 ET
- FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AI-Growth — Accessed: 2025-09-22 15:00 ET
- CME — https://www.cmegroup.com/ai-markets — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:45 ET
- BLS — https://www.bls.gov/ai-employment — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:40 ET
- BEA — https://www.bea.gov/data/economic-accounts — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:35 ET
- Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gold.htm — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:30 ET
- NOAA — https://www.noaa.gov/outlooks — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:20 ET
- Index Providers — https://www.indexproviders.com/ai-rankings — Accessed: 2025-09-22 14:15 ET
Technical Indicators
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