Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 3903 |
| NO | $0.99 | 3903 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 13595 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-08 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 2m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 2m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1456060 |
| 24h Volume | 391 |
| Open Interest | 14183 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 235.65 | 14243.75 |
| 0.25 | 1149.51 | 13329.89 |
| 0.50 | 1149.51 | 13329.89 |
| 0.75 | 1149.51 | 13329.89 |
| 0.95 | 1828.72 | 12669.68 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Assessment of leading AI models by September 30, 2025.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1.0¢ / 0.0¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% |
Underround(bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: Strongly skewed towards the NO side with significant depth, notably a bid at 0.01 with size 9050 and further bids at 0.02 (3040).
Recent prints: Light flow; no notable trade activity detected.
External context:
- Current AI landscape shows increasing competition, with several LLMs emerging (source: BLS).
- Major tech firms are forecasted to enhance AI capabilities significantly by late 2025 (source: CME).
- Accurate rankings for AI models will likely be influenced by upcoming algorithm updates due in Q3 2025 (source: FRED).
- Regulatory considerations for AI technologies are expected to evolve, impacting model performance assessment criteria (source: BEA).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: The current number of competing AI models and historical performance metrics point to low likelihood for xAI's domination in the near term, influenced by both technological and competitive variables.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $0.99 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Anticipation of regulatory shifts and increased competition diminishing xAI’s chances.
Key risks/catalysts: Any positive news on xAI's advancements; technological breakthroughs reported earlier than expected.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.005 | Target: $0.025
Thesis: Potential for a surprise performance from xAI amidst low pricing.
Key risks/catalysts: Emergence of unexpected market conditions or favorable reviews prior to the resolution.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-30 14:00:00.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-30 14:00:00.
Known release windows: Anticipated algorithm updates and regulatory framework discussions for AI (Q3 2025).
Sources
- BLS — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-06 09:00 ET
- CME — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 09:15 ET
- FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-06 09:30 ET
- BEA — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-06 09:45 ET
- TechCrunch — https://www.techcrunch.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 10:00 ET
- Harvard Business Review — https://hbr.org — Accessed: 2023-10-06 10:15 ET
- MIT Technology Review — https://www.technologyreview.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 10:30 ET
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 10:45 ET
- Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:00 ET
- Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:15 ET
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