Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 6744 |
| NO | $0.99 | 6744 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 9271 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-08 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 2m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-30 10:00 AM ET (6d 23h 2m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2282162 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 251 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 111.16 | 23065.6 |
| 0.25 | 837.53 | 22339.23 |
| 0.50 | 837.53 | 22339.23 |
| 0.75 | 1501.48 | 21675.28 |
| 0.95 | 3976.24 | 19219.52 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Alibaba have the top-ranked LLM on September 30, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1.0¢ / 99.0¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a heavy skew towards the NO side, with significant depth at multiple levels, particularly at 0.01 (15,666 contracts) and 0.02 (3,040 contracts).
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported in the past 24 hours.
External context: - Alibaba recently announced advancements in AI capabilities, which could influence market perceptions—(Alibaba Press Release). - The global AI market is projected to grow significantly, with increasing competition among major tech firms—(Gartner Report). - Previous market patterns suggest skepticism towards AI claims due to overhyped predictions—(Harvard Business Review). - Recent studies show the leading position of both global and Asian tech firms in AI development metrics—(McKinsey Insights).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Given the current market positioning and significant competition in the AI landscape, the probability of Alibaba ranking first appears low. Recent advancements lack sufficient evidence to warrant a higher confidence level, supported by high NO bids in the orderbook.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES Market
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.02 | Target: 0.005
Thesis: High skepticism around Alibaba's claim to the top rank in a competitive market.
Key risks/catalysts: Emerging positive news about Alibaba's AI claims, significant shifts in public sentiment, or unexpected advancements from Alibaba.
Idea 2 — Long NO Market
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.97
Thesis: Strong demand for the NO side reflects market consensus skepticism towards Alibaba's potential.
Key risks/catalysts: Competitive innovations from Alibaba that shift market perceptions or notable benchmarks indicating leadership in AI.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:43 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-30 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Potential AI announcements from Alibaba or competitors could emerge in the weeks leading up to expiration.
Sources
- Alibaba Press Release — https://www.alibaba.com/press — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Gartner Report — https://www.gartner.com/en/research — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- Harvard Business Review — https://hbr.org/2023 — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- McKinsey Insights — https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:43 ET
- [Further authoritative sources can be included as relevant.]
Technical Indicators
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