Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 2.0¢ | 98.0% |
| NO | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.97 | 400 | $0.99 | 4088 |
| NO | $0.01 | 4088 | $0.03 | 400 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.9718 | -0.8217 | 5488 |
| $0.0282 | 0.8217 | 4088 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.970 – 0.990 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0082 |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 37m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 47m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 65527021 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 2016 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 7914.33 | 29817.93 |
| 0.25 | 17400.48 | 19331.78 |
| 0.50 | 20339.27 | 16892.99 |
| 0.75 | 22819.81 | 13912.45 |
| 0.95 | 27770.02 | 8962.24 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Bloomberg-Style Brief
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 98% | YES/NO spreads: 0.99¢ / 0.01¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a strong imbalance towards "YES" with the majority of liquidity focused at higher prices, particularly a large bid for "NO" at the 0.01¢ level.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.
External context: - The Federal Reserve has signaled its commitment to a stricter monetary policy in response to ongoing inflationary pressures. (Source: Federal Reserve press release) - Current inflation rates remain above the Fed's target, reinforcing expectations of continued rate increases. (Source: BLS inflation report) - Market participants generally anticipate a hike given the Fed's recent hawkish stance, with forecasts suggesting future adjustments as early as December 2025. (Source: CME FedWatch Tool)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: Despite high market enthusiasm for a "YES," economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications suggest that while rates may rise, the market’s complete certainty may be overstated due to potential geopolitical events that could affect economic stability.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long "YES" - Entry: 0.98 - Invalid/Stop: 0.95 - Target: 1.00 - Thesis: Strong bullish sentiment supported by the Fed's policies. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected economic data releases, changes in Fed communication, or geopolitical instability.
Idea 2 — Consider shorting "NO" - Entry: 0.01 - Invalid/Stop: 0.03 - Target: 0.00 - Thesis: Lopsided sentiment suggests limited room for "NO" to gain traction. - Key risks/catalysts: Surprises in inflation or Fed statements.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:43 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05 ET.
Known release windows: Upcoming BLS inflation reports (monthly), Fed meetings (monthly).
Sources
- Federal Reserve Press Release — federalreserve.gov/news/releases.htm — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:45 ET
- BLS Consumer Price Index — bls.gov/cpi — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:50 ET
- CME FedWatch Tool — cmegroup.com/education/cme-fedwatch.html — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- BEA National Income and Product Accounts — bea.gov/national — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Treasury Yield Curve Rates — treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:10 ET
- NOAA Economic Analysis — noaa.gov/climate — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:15 ET
- Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Economic Outlook — cbo.gov/publication/outlook — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:20 ET
- MarketWatch Economic Indicators — marketwatch.com/economy-politics — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
- Bloomberg Markets Data — bloomberg.com/markets — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
Technical Indicators
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