Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.77 | $0.81 | $0.85 | 8.0¢ | 81.0% |
| NO | $0.15 | $0.19 | $0.23 | 8.0¢ | 19.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.77 | 200 | $0.85 | 0 |
| NO | $0.15 | 0 | $0.23 | 200 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.81 | 0.0 | 799 |
| $0.19 | 0.0 | 233 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.770 – 0.850 |
| Band Width | 0.080 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 3.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 33m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 43m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 57405715 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 4792 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 6068.98 | 124080.46 |
| 0.25 | 10242.44 | 118919.0 |
| 0.50 | 12033.14 | 117128.3 |
| 0.75 | 15215.38 | 113946.06 |
| 0.95 | 19393.6 | 111228.94 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 82% | YES/NO spreads: 8¢ / 4¢ | Overround (asks): 8% | Underround (bids): 8%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant bias towards "Yes," with a notable imbalance as the largest bid size for "Yes" at $0.01 being 409,998, compared to 42,737 for "No" at the same price level.
Recent prints: Notable trade activity is absent, indicating lower engagement at this time.
External context: - The Federal Reserve has suggested plans for continued monitoring of inflation trends, with potential for rate adjustments at upcoming meetings (Federal Reserve). - Recent inflation data shows a decrease in the annual rate, creating mixed expectations about future rate hikes (Bureau of Labor Statistics). - Market analysts predict that if macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, a rate above 3.5% is highly plausible (CME Group). - Open interest remains moderate, indicating participant confidence in the outcome (Kalshi Data).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 85%.
Rationale: Given the current economic data, including inflation trends and the Fed's signals towards potential tightening, the likelihood of a 3.5% upper bound appears favorable, supported by market confidence as reflected in the orderbook.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy Yes
- Entry: $0.82 | Invalid/Stop: $0.70 | Target: $0.95
- Thesis: Inflation pressures will lead the Fed to maintain or exceed 3.5% rates.
- Key risks/catalysts: Weak economic data; unexpected Fed statements; shifts in inflation trends.
Idea 2 — Sell No
- Entry: $0.18 | Invalid/Stop: $0.25 | Target: $0.10
- Thesis: Market sentiment supports an increase above the 3.5% threshold.
- Key risks/catalysts: Unanticipated monetary policy changes; economic downturn.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:41
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05
Known release windows: Next Fed meeting scheduled for December 2025, with inflation data releases in October and November.
Sources
- Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- Kalshi Data — https://www.kalshi.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- FRED Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- Treasury — https://home.treasury.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- NWS/NOAA — https://www.weather.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- Financial Times — https://www.ft.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
- Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
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