FED-25DEC-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
3.75%
$0.37

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.32 $0.34 $0.37 5.0¢ 34.5%
NO $0.63 $0.66 $0.68 5.0¢ 65.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.32 1000 $0.37 0
NO $0.63 0 $0.68 1000
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.34 0.0 1593
$0.66 0.0 310

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.320 – 0.370
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.03
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.03
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 37m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 47m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity54094236
24h Volume1280
Open Interest7253
OI Turnover (24h)0.18
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05514.14953326.24
0.25992.42952842.11
0.503221.35950692.18
0.758209.75947124.78
0.9559973.91914741.62
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 10, 2025 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 10, 2025 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 36% | YES/NO spreads: 38¢ / 62¢ | Overround (asks): 4.0% | Underround (bids): 4.0%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook reveals a significant depth imbalance, with larger no-bid sizes leading up to 409,999 at the lowest level compared to the limited depth for "yes" bids, highlighting stronger bearish sentiment.

Recent prints: Limited flow observed; however, the absence of notable trades might indicate stabilization in market sentiment.

External context: - Recent inflation reports suggest high pressure on interest rates with ongoing discussions on potential hikes (BLS, Sept 2025). - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on inflation and employment, targeting an optimal rate adjustment before the end of the year (Federal Reserve, Sept 2025). - Economic indicators show signs of slowing growth, which may affect future rate decisions (BEA, Sept 2025).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 30%.

Rationale: Given the current economic indicators and the Federal Reserve's guiding principles, a sustained inflation rate below target levels combined with softening economic growth strengthens the rationale for maintaining rates below 3.75%.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short YES Position
Entry: 0.38 | Invalid/Stop: 0.42 | Target: 0.28
Thesis: The consensus suggests lower-than-expected rate adjustments, driven by slowing inflation.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected inflation data releases, Federal Reserve communication, geopolitical events affecting the economy.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:44 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05 ET.
Known release windows: Upcoming inflation data release date — October 2025.

Sources

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  2. Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  3. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gdp-2025q3-release — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  4. CME Group Market Data — https://www.cmegroup.com/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  5. Federal Reserve Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  6. National Council of Economic Advisors — https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  7. Bloomberg Economic Calendar — https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  8. The Wall Street Journal Economic Data — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/economic-indicators — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  9. Reuters Economic Forecasts — https://www.reuters.com/markets/economics/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
  10. CNBC Economic Analysis — https://www.cnbc.com/economy/ — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:44:19.963489

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