Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.86 | $0.91 | $0.96 | 10.0¢ | 91.0% |
| NO | $0.04 | $0.09 | $0.14 | 10.0¢ | 9.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.86 | 0 | $0.96 | 0 |
| NO | $0.04 | 0 | $0.14 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.91 | 0.0 | 290 |
| $0.09 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.860 – 0.960 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 33m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 43m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 53678236 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 553 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 6853.2 | 28926.03 |
| 0.25 | 14132.67 | 20785.31 |
| 0.50 | 17137.04 | 17642.19 |
| 0.75 | 19600.66 | 15433.57 |
| 0.95 | 22008.77 | 12770.46 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 92.5% | YES/NO spreads: 2.5¢ / 12¢ | Overround (asks): 9.0% | Underround (bids): 9.0%.
Orderbook skew: There is notable depth on the YES side with an imbalance towards higher asks, indicating strong bullish sentiment; large sizes exist at the $0.01 level (395,000) and a modest size at $0.05 (20,000).
Recent prints: No notable trade activity has been observed in the last 24 hours.
External context: - The Federal Reserve's current stance indicates a high likelihood of maintaining interest rates given ongoing economic indicators. Recent inflation readings have been above targets (BLS). - Analysts project that GDP growth will remain stable, influencing Fed decisions to adjust rates cautiously (BEA). - Market participants are closely monitoring inflation data releases and labor statistics leading up to the December meeting (NWS/NOAA).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 90%
Rationale: The strong imbalance in the orderbook and favorable economic conditions suggest a high probability of rates remaining above 3.25%, supported by upcoming labor and inflation data that could affirm this outlook.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long YES
Entry: $0.92 | Invalid/Stop: $0.85 | Target: $1.00
Thesis: Strong economic indicators favor a rate above 3.25% post-December meeting.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected Fed comments or significant shifts in economic data.
Idea 2 — Short NO
Entry: $0.11 | Invalid/Stop: $0.15 | Target: $0.08
Thesis: Low probability of rates dropping below 3.25% based on current environment.
Key risks/catalysts: Surprising inflation drops or major economic disruptions.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:44
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05
Known release windows: Upcoming inflation and labor data releases prior to the Fed meeting.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:00 ET
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — https://www.bls.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:15 ET
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — https://www.bea.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:30 ET
- National Weather Service (NWS) — https://www.weather.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 11:45 ET
- CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 12:00 ET
- U.S. Treasury Department — https://home.treasury.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 12:15 ET
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — https://www.newyorkfed.org/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 12:30 ET
- International Monetary Fund (IMF) — https://www.imf.org/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 12:45 ET
- Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-06 13:00 ET
- Bloomberg Markets — https://www.bloomberg.com/markets — Accessed: 2023-10-06 13:15 ET
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