Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.07 | $0.1 | $0.13 | 6.0¢ | 10.0% |
| NO | $0.87 | $0.9 | $0.93 | 6.0¢ | 90.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.07 | 117 | $0.13 | 0 |
| NO | $0.87 | 0 | $0.93 | 117 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1 | 0.0 | 789 |
| $0.9 | 0.0 | 422 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.070 – 0.130 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 39m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 53244220 |
| 24h Volume | 133 |
| Open Interest | 4513 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 38.43 | 1033272.61 |
| 0.25 | 1391.4 | 1031956.14 |
| 0.50 | 3559.82 | 1029738.72 |
| 0.75 | 9072.92 | 1024225.62 |
| 0.95 | 106436.54 | 989372.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 10% | YES/NO spreads: 13¢ / 87¢ | Overround (asks): 6.0% | Underround (bids): 6.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant imbalance, with $409,000 at 99¢ on the YES side and high liquidity in bids at lower prices. This indicates strong support for the NO side.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity was observed in the recent trades.
External context: - Current federal funds rate is at 5.25%, indicating a tightening cycle (Source: Federal Reserve). - The next FOMC meeting post-December is anticipated to make significant policy announcements (Source: CME Group). - Recent CPI and employment data suggests persistent inflation, influencing Fed rate decisions (Source: BLS).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 15%.
Rationale: While the market shows 10% likelihood for a rate >4.00% post-December meeting, macroeconomic indicators imply a lower probability of substantial rate cuts due to ongoing inflation and labor market resilience.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES Position
Entry: 0.13 | Invalid/Stop: 0.15 | Target: 0.05
Thesis: Market underappreciates the likelihood of sustained tight monetary policy.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected changes in inflation data, misjudgment on the Fed's tone in upcoming meetings.
Idea 2 — Long NO Position
Entry: 0.87 | Invalid/Stop: 0.85 | Target: 0.93
Thesis: Strong support for rates remaining below 4.00%, driven by the Fed's current trajectory.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden shifts in economic data or policy announcements that indicate a pivot by the Fed.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:44 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): December 10, 2025, 19:05 ET.
Known release windows: Monthly jobs report (early December), inflation data (mid-December).
Sources
- Federal Reserve: Current Fed Rate — federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- CME Group: FedWatch Tool — cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): CPI Report — bls.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- National Bureau of Economic Research: Business Cycle Dating — nber.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Economic Research: Monetary Policy Reports — federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Economic Indicators — newyorkfed.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: GDPNow Forecast — frbatlanta.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Calvo, G. (2025). Inflation Forecasting — jstor.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Reuters: Economic Report — reuters.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
- Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook — bloomberg.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:44 ET
Technical Indicators
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