Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.94 | $0.96 | $0.98 | 4.0¢ | 96.0% |
| NO | $0.02 | $0.04 | $0.06 | 4.0¢ | 4.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.94 | 200 | $0.98 | 52 |
| NO | $0.02 | 52 | $0.06 | 200 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.9717 | 0.5873 | 6232 |
| $0.0283 | -0.5873 | 5052 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.940 – 0.980 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0117 |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 39m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 57282936 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 2417 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 7204.31 | 29604.85 |
| 0.25 | 16653.49 | 19505.42 |
| 0.50 | 19404.73 | 16554.43 |
| 0.75 | 21367.86 | 14441.3 |
| 0.95 | 25807.24 | 10001.92 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 96% | YES/NO spreads: 98¢ / 6¢ | Overround(asks): 4.0% | Underround(bids): 4.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book reflects a significant imbalance favoring "YES" orders, with notable sizes at lower levels, indicating strong market confidence. The largest YES order is 430,000 contracts at $0.01.
Recent prints: Light flow observed; no notable trade activity reported.
External context: - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target rate by 75 bps in their last meeting, signaling a tightening cycle. [Source: Federal Reserve Board] - Current inflation metrics remain above target levels, necessitating ongoing monetary policy adjustments. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics] - Market anticipates economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 2% in Q4 2025, reducing recession fears. [Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: The market pricing reflects strong belief in an increase to above 3.00%, backed by the Fed's recent hawkish stance and persistent inflation concerns, though minor uncertainties remain regarding potential economic factors impacting future decisions.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long YES
- Entry: 0.95 | Invalid/Stop: 0.90 | Target: 1.05
Thesis: Continued inflation indicates Fed will maintain a tightening stance, likely pushing rates above 3.00%.
Key risks/catalysts: Potential for unexpected Fed signaling; economic slowdown could alter expectations.
Idea 2 — Short NO
- Entry: 0.05 | Invalid/Stop: 0.10 | Target: 0.01
Thesis: Lower probability of rates falling below 3.00% given current Fed narratives.
Key risks/catalysts: Economic downturn or Fed policy reversal could affect this positioning.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:41
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05
Known release windows: FOMC meetings and major inflation data releases prior to December meeting.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Board: FOMC Meeting Minutes — federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Summary — bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- Bureau of Economic Analysis: GDP Advance Estimate — bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- CME Group: Interest Rate Futures Overview — cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- MarketWatch: Fed's Rate Policy Impact — marketwatch.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- The Wall Street Journal: Economic Forecasts — wsj.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- CNBC: Financial Markets News — cnbc.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- Bloomberg: U.S. Interest Rates Analysis — bloomberg.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): Interest Rate Trends — fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
- Reuters: Market Predictions on Fed Rates — reuters.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 08:00 ET
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