EVENTQUANT

KXNCAAF-26-BAMA

Will the Alabama win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

$0.06

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.05	$0.06	$0.06	1.0¢	5.5%
NO	$0.94	$0.94	$0.95	1.0¢	94.5%

Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.05	11436	$0.06	11809
NO	$0.94	11809	$0.95	11436

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.0549	-0.016	87196
$0.9451	0.016	43927

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.050 – 0.060
Band Width	0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)	-0.5
Vig (bps/h)	0

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	0.02
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	0.01
Micro Pull ($)	-0.0051

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-02-11 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2028-01-19 10:00 AM ET (847d 20h 25m)
Expected Expiration	2026-01-19 10:00 AM ET (117d 20h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	405543353
24h Volume	885
Open Interest	218196
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	2486.64	3963197.06
0.25	8796.74	3956315.16
0.50	10275.94	3954835.96
0.75	63931.22	3901180.68
0.95	1109017.8	2856094.1

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Alabama wins the College Football Playoff National Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:34:42.577592

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