EVENTQUANT

KXNCAAF-26-PSU

Will the Penn St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

$0.12

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.11	$0.12	$0.12	1.0¢	11.5%
NO	$0.88	$0.89	$0.89	1.0¢	88.5%

Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.11	20000	$0.12	8626
NO	$0.88	8626	$0.89	20000

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.117	0.3973	36072
$0.883	-0.3973	53455

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.110 – 0.120
Band Width	0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)	-0.5
Vig (bps/h)	0

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	-0.003

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-02-11 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2028-01-19 10:00 AM ET (847d 20h 27m)
Expected Expiration	2026-01-19 10:00 AM ET (117d 20h 27m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	423333932
24h Volume	33261
Open Interest	201011
OI Turnover (24h)	0.17
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	2059.62	3971948.47
0.25	14260.25	3959900.84
0.50	17472.22	3956535.87
0.75	72827.41	3901180.68
0.95	1117913.99	2856094.1

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Penn St. wins the College Football Playoff National Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:32:34.617133

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