Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.02 | 1.0¢ | 1.5% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 1.0¢ | 98.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 999 | $0.02 | 1500 |
| NO | $0.98 | 1500 | $0.99 | 999 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.014 | -0.2005 | 7199 |
| $0.986 | 0.2005 | 7277 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.004 |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (78d 0h 20m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (78d 0h 30m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 62532734 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 3654 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 295.99 | 1251624.72 |
| 0.25 | 2335.47 | 1249585.24 |
| 0.50 | 5476.17 | 1246546.54 |
| 0.75 | 9659.31 | 1242261.4 |
| 0.95 | 174924.69 | 1140266.02 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.5% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 4¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% | Underround(bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book indicates substantial depth on the "No" side, with the largest bid at $0.01 for a size of 408,999, suggesting strong sentiment against a rate above 4.50%. Conversely, the "Yes" side shows minimal interest, primarily at $0.01.
Recent prints: There have been no notable trades in the last 24 hours.
External context: - The Federal Reserve is currently in a highly uncertain macroeconomic environment, balancing inflation concerns and slowing economic growth. - Recent inflation data from the BLS shows persistent inflation, with the CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month in August 2025. [BLS] - The CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% probability of maintaining rates at current levels during the December meeting. [CME] - The Treasury yield curve is flattening, suggesting market expectations for rate cuts in 2026. [FRED]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1.0%.
Rationale: Given the market sentiment indicated by the significant "No" positions and recent macroeconomic data, probabilities for a rate above 4.50% appear overly optimistic.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short Yes via futures options
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: Above $0.03 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: The prevailing macro environment and strong "No" sentiment make a short position likely profitable.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed; unforeseen inflation data.
Idea 2 — Buy No for a hedged position
Entry: $0.98 | Invalid/Stop: Below $0.97 | Target: $0.99
Thesis: Hedging against any near-term bullish surprises while capitalizing on the significant downside.
Key risks/catalysts: Major economic shifts or Fed announcements that increase rate expectations.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:41 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): December 10, 2025, 19:05 ET.
Known release windows: U.S. GDP data release on October 26, 2025; Consumer Price Index on November 14, 2025.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Financial Times — "US inflation remains sticky as consumer prices rise again" — https://www.ft.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Wall Street Journal — "Federal Reserve’s next moves amid economic uncertainty" — https://www.wsj.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Bloomberg — "Interest Rates: The New Normal?" — https://www.bloomberg.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Reuters — "U.S. Treasury yields: A sign of things to come" — https://www.reuters.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- CNBC — "Market reacts to Fed’s stance on rate hikes" — https://www.cnbc.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- The Economist — "Analyzing the Fed’s monetary policy" — https://www.economist.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- MarketWatch — "What to expect from the Fed's December meeting" — https://www.marketwatch.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
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