Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 2.0¢ | 98.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 2000 | $0.03 | 1500 |
| NO | $0.97 | 1500 | $0.99 | 2000 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0214 | 0.1429 | 7464 |
| $0.9786 | -0.1429 | 5464 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0014 |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 37m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 47m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 62751941 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 829 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 230.0 | 1263655.56 |
| 0.25 | 2228.72 | 1261656.84 |
| 0.50 | 5366.9 | 1258620.66 |
| 0.75 | 10670.04 | 1253215.52 |
| 0.95 | 186889.54 | 1140266.02 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance towards the "NO" side with substantial sizes at the lower price levels, indicating a strong sentiment against an increase in rates above 4.75%. The largest NO bid is at $0.01 with a size of 408,999.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity has been observed in the last 24 hours, reflecting low market engagement.
External context:
- Recent Fed statements suggest stability in interest rates, with many analysts predicting no hikes beyond existing levels until 2026 (Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, accessed 2023-10-01).
- Economic indicators show robust labor market data, but inflation remains moderated, decreasing perceived urgency for rate hikes (BLS Jobs Report, accessed 2023-10-01).
- The CME FedWatch Tool currently implies a strong likelihood of rates holding steady through December, aligning with market sentiment (CME Group, accessed 2023-10-01).
- Recent PMI data indicates economic growth, further reducing pressure on the Fed to increase rates (Markit Economics, accessed 2023-10-01).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%
Rationale: Despite the current market sentiment favoring stability with minimal anticipated changes in the Federal funds rate, recent economic data reflects resilient economic activity, albeit within bounds. The likelihood of a surprise increase remains low.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Sell YES
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.005
Thesis: Current rates are likely to hold below 4.75% based on Fed communications and economic data.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected inflation data, sudden shifts in Fed policy, geopolitical events impacting economic outlook.
Idea 2 — Buy NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $1.01
Thesis: Market sentiment heavily favors "NO," validating long positions against low ceiling rates.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden positive economic indicators or Fed statements prompting increased rate speculation.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:41 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-12-10 19:05 ET
Known release windows:
- Federal Funds Rate Announcements: December 10, 2025
- Upcoming Economic Data Releases: Monthly BLS Jobs Report (First Friday of each month)
Sources
- Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- BLS Jobs Report — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- CME Group: FedWatch Tool — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Markit Economics: PMI Data Releases — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Economic Outlook Reports — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Treasury Auctions Overview — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Institute for Supply Management Reports — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →