Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 2.0¢ | 98.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 500 | $0.03 | 1500 |
| NO | $0.97 | 1500 | $0.99 | 500 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.015 | -0.5 | 3649 |
| $0.985 | 0.5 | 3149 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.005 |
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-10 01:55 PM ET (77d 22h 31m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-10 02:05 PM ET (77d 22h 41m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 60262357 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 500 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 135.0 | 1216264.72 |
| 0.25 | 1427.62 | 1214972.1 |
| 0.50 | 3947.48 | 1212554.24 |
| 0.75 | 8130.62 | 1208269.1 |
| 0.95 | 177427.7 | 1102242.02 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: Current imbalance indicates significant depth in the NO position with notable sizes at lower prices. Largest NO bid at $0.01 was 408,999, reflecting strong market belief in rates staying below 5.25%.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported, indicating a stable market context with low trading volume.
External context: - The Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach to further rate hikes, suggesting a likelihood of maintaining the current rate range. (Source: Federal Reserve) - Current inflation data suggests easing pressures, which may influence future rate decisions positively toward stabilization. (Source: BLS) - Anticipated economic slowdown in Q4 may limit potential rate increases. (Source: CME Group)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: The prevailing market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome. Recent economic indicators and Fed guidance suggest limited possibility for surpassing the 5.25% threshold.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES position
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.00
Thesis: Market overestimates the chances of rate increases above 5.25%.
Key risks/catalysts: Economic data releases, shifts in Fed communication.
Idea 2 — Hedge with NO position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.96 | Target: $1.00
Thesis: Strong market belief in NO outcome offers a low-risk opportunity.
Key risks/catalysts: Major shifts in economic metrics or unexpected Fed commentary.
(Additional ideas can be generated on request)
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, at 16:44 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): December 10, 2025, at 19:05 ET.
Known release windows: Economic data releases on inflation and employment prior to the Fed meeting.
Sources
- Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Treasury Department — https://home.treasury.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — https://www.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Index Providers — https://www.spglobal.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
- Reuters Economic Calendar — https://www.reuters.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:44 ET
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