Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 250 |
| NO | $0.98 | 250 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 500 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-07 03:45 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 3h 26m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 13h 27m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1032260 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 182 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 12.5 | 10839.69 |
| 0.25 | 12.5 | 10839.69 |
| 0.50 | 12.5 | 10839.69 |
| 0.75 | 12.5 | 10839.69 |
| 0.95 | 952.19 | 9900.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 3.2 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook is heavily skewed towards "No," with multiple large bid levels starting just above the market ask. Notably, there is significant depth at 1¢, suggesting strong demand for "No".
Recent prints: No recent trades recorded in the last 24 hours, indicating light trading activity.
External context:
- Arctic sea ice extent has fluctuated significantly, raising concerns among climatologists. Recent data suggests a potential trend towards reduced ice coverage as observed in summer months. (Source: National Snow & Ice Data Center)
- Historical coastal erosion and marine ecosystem shifts have been corroborated with increased ice melt. (Source: NOAA)
- Climate predictions indicate unusually warm conditions continuing through the winter of 2024-2025. (Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: The extremely low market-implied probability (2%) does not align with current climate models which indicate increasing risks of decreased ice coverage, particularly in warmer years. The analyst posits that a moderate uptick (to 5%) reflects heightened environmental variables being observed.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long YES Position
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.15
Thesis: Potential climate risks may elevate probabilities beyond current market assessments.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Unexpected colder weather patterns.
- Regulatory changes affecting greenhouse gas emissions.
Idea 2 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.85
Thesis: If the extent of ice continues to diminish, demand for "No" should reduce.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Data from the National Snow & Ice Data Center indicating a rebound in ice levels.
- Sudden policy shifts promoting environmental conservations.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00 UTC.
Known release windows: Expected ice extent data releases leading up to the close.
Sources
- National Snow & Ice Data Center — nsidc.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center — climate.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- NOAA — noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Arctic Research Consortium of the US — arcus.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- International Arctic Research Center — iarc.uaf.edu — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- U.S. Geological Survey — usgs.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- IPCC Report on Climate Change — ipcc.ch — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- NOAA Fisheries — fisheries.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- European Space Agency — esa.int — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- National Ocean Service — oceanservice.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
Technical Indicators
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