Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 325 |
| NO | $0.99 | 325 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 325 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-03 02:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 4h 46m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 14h 47m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 992840 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1207 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 3.25 | 10032.12 |
| 0.25 | 3.25 | 10032.12 |
| 0.50 | 162.25 | 9893.12 |
| 0.75 | 171.35 | 9864.02 |
| 0.95 | 171.35 | 9864.02 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 3.6 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% |
Underround(bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows significant depth on the NO side, with the largest size at 10,000 units priced at 2¢, indicating a strong consensus for "NO." No bids for "YES" were noted.
Recent prints: No notable trading activity observed in the last 24 hours.
External context: - The Arctic's sea ice extent continues to see a long-term decline, with 2022 observing one of the lowest recorded extents at 3.3 million square km. (National Snow & Ice Data Center) - Current climate models suggest a warming trend that could sustain low ice levels during the prediction window. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) - Recent reports confirm that 2023 has started with significantly lower sea ice levels than average. (NOAA) - Historical analysis indicates an increased likelihood of below-average ice extent due to warming Arctic temperatures. (NSIDC)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Although current models and historical trends suggest a declining sea ice extent, the strong current position of the orderbook at high NO prices and lack of recent trading activity indicates a market consensus for "NO." An estimate of 5% reflects broader climate trends, albeit still overshadowed by existing market sentiment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES position
Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 2¢ | Target: 0.1¢
Thesis: Given the strong consensus reflected in the order book for "NO," a short on YES is justified.
Key risks/catalysts: Climate anomalies leading to rapid field changes in sea ice dynamics, increased media attention on climate events.
Idea 2 — Long NO position
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 98¢ | Target: 100¢
Thesis: The prevailing data supports a high likelihood of no significant change to Arctic sea ice levels.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected climate reports signaling a rush in melting rates could challenge this position.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:57 ET
Expected expiration (ET): October 2, 2025, 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Monthly Arctic sea ice reports; next report due in early October 2025.
Sources
- National Snow & Ice Data Center — https://nsidc.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — https://ipcc.ch — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- NOAA — https://noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- National Weather Service — https://weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Climate.gov — https://climate.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Arctic Report Card (NOAA) — https://www.arctic.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- U.S. Geological Survey — https://usgs.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Climate Change Indicators — https://epa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
- Environmental Research Letters — https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326 — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
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