KXARCTICICEMIN-25OCT01-T4.5

Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.5 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?

4.5 million sq km

$0.05

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.0	$0.05	$0.05	5.0¢	4.88%
NO	$0.95	$0.97	$1.0	5.0¢	95.24%

Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.0	0	$0.05	148
NO	$0.95	148	$1.0	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.05	0.0	0
$0.97	0.0	148

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.000 – 0.050
Band Width	0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-0.12
NO Edge (ticks)	-4.88
Vig (bps/h)	2

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-08-29 06:45 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 3h 23m)
Expected Expiration	2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 13h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	960
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	880
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	1040.53
0.25	7.4	1033.13
0.50	7.4	1033.13
0.75	7.4	1033.13
0.95	1040.53	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025 where the extent of arctic sea ice is Above 4.5 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Clarification (7/1/25 at 3:15am ET): On June 25, 2025, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that the Department of Defense will stop processing and delivering data required to resolve this market. If the NSDIC replaces this dataset with something else by the Expiration Date, that data will be used to resolve the market. If no dataset is available on the Expiration Date, then Rule 7.2 of Kalshi’s Rulebook will be invoked, and data from JAXA (https://earth.jaxa.jp/en/data/products/sea-ice/index.html) will be used to resolve the market.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.5 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 5% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 5¢ | Overround (asks): 5% | Underround (bids): 5%.

Orderbook skew: - Notable depth in NO levels with a large bid at $0.11 (1,145 contracts). - Minimal liquidity for YES bids in the current market.

Recent prints: - No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.

External context: - The Arctic sea ice extent has shown a declining trend in recent years according to the National Snow & Ice Data Center. - Recent climate studies indicate increased temperatures resulting from climate change impact sea ice levels significantly (NOAA). - Historical averages for Arctic sea ice extent have consistently fallen below the 4.5 million square km mark in recent years during the winter months (NSIDC). - Predictions for the Arctic sea ice extent variability suggest heightened uncertainty due to ongoing climatic shifts (IPCC).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 3%

Rationale: Current climate models and historical data indicate a declining trend in sea ice extent, significantly lowering the likelihood of above 4.5 million square km during the specified period.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.95 | Invalid/Stop: $0.99 | Target: $0.80
Thesis: Strong likelihood based on climate trends that the ice extent will remain below threshold.
Key risks/catalysts: 1. Unanticipated weather patterns leading to ice recovery.
2. Substantial shifts in climate policy or interventions.

Idea 2 — Long YES Position (speculative)
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.12
Thesis: Potential for short-term volatility based on unexpected weather anomalies.
Key risks/catalysts: 1. Extreme weather events leading to temporary increases in sea ice.
2. Changes in public consensus on climate policies.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:01 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Climate reports from NSIDC anticipated in mid-November and updates from NOAA next month.

Sources

National Snow & Ice Data Center — https://nsidc.org/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
NOAA Climate Prediction Center — https://www.noaa.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
IPCC Special Report on Climate Change — https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
U.S. Geological Survey: Arctic Sea Ice Trends — https://www.usgs.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
Climate.gov Analysis on Arctic Sea Ice — https://www.climate.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. — https://arctic.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
World Meteorological Organization — https://public.wmo.int/en — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
NASA: Arctic Sea Ice Change — https://climate.nasa.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
European Space Agency: CryoSat-2 Data — https://www.esa.int/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET
Environmental Research Letters — https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326 — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:01 ET

Last updated: 2025-09-22T21:01:59.640823

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