Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.6 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 95.5% | YES/NO spreads: 9.1¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 9.0% | Underround (bids): 9.0%

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant bias towards "YES" with larger size on the ask side, indicating bullish sentiment among traders.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.

External context: - Arctic sea ice extent has been declining at an alarming rate, with recent summer minimum levels significantly below historical averages. (NSIDC) - Forecasts indicate continued warming trends in the Arctic, with the potential for below-average ice extent this winter. (NOAA) - Climate models project ongoing reductions in sea ice, which could influence the likelihood of reaching the market threshold. (IPCC)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 90%
Rationale: Given the existing downtrend in sea ice levels and forecasted climatic conditions, the probability remains high that the extent will be below 4.6 million square km.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES Position
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $0.85 | Target: $1.30
Thesis: The sustained decline in Arctic ice levels supports the likelihood of a "YES" outcome.
Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen weather conditions impacting ice growth, changes in reporting methodologies by the NSIDC.

Idea 2 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.09 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.02
Thesis: As the probability of a "NO" outcome decreases, shorts present an attractive risk-reward.
Key risks/catalysts: Any deviation from expected climate models may lead to temporary increases in "NO" interest.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-10-01 23:59 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Monthly updates from NSIDC and seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA.

Sources

1. NSIDC Sea Ice Index — https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
2. NOAA Arctic Report Card — https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
3. IPCC Climate Change Report — https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
4. FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
5. BLS Consumer Price Index — https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
6. CME Group Market Insights — https://www.cmegroup.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
7. NOAA Seasonal Outlooks — https://www.noaa.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
8. National Weather Service — https://www.weather.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
9. USDA Climate Change Report — https://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change.htm — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
10. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate Change — https://www.usgs.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET