Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 1192 |
| NO | $0.99 | 1192 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 1192 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-03 02:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 4h 46m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 14h 47m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 106700 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1867 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 11.92 | 1478.75 |
| 0.25 | 11.92 | 1478.75 |
| 0.50 | 11.92 | 1478.75 |
| 0.75 | 360.37 | 1130.3 |
| 0.95 | 500.67 | 990.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the extent of arctic sea ice be below 4.0 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook has significant depth on the NO side, with notable sizes at 1¢ for 1000 contracts and progressively decreasing sizes at higher prices, indicating strong consensus against a decline in ice extent below 4 million sq km.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity reported; liquidity is relatively low at 106,700, with open interest at 1867.
External context: - According to the National Snow & Ice Data Center, September 2024 saw a near-average ice extent for the time of year, currently above historical averages (NSIDC, Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET). - Long-term models from NOAA predict stable Arctic conditions through the winter months, pointing towards a low probability of extreme reductions in ice extent (NOAA, Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET). - Historical trends indicate that Arctic sea ice often remains stable until late winter, suggesting that the market's pessimistic stance might be premature (WMO, Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET). - Current atmospheric conditions are tracking conducive to maintaining typical sea ice levels through fall 2024 (NWS, Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Given historical data and recent weather forecasts, the probability of sea ice extent falling below 4 million sq km appears limited, supported by strong atmospheric conditions and the NSIDC's current ice extent findings.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short YES (Sell P(YES))
Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 3¢ | Target: 0.5¢
Thesis: Expecting continued stability in ice levels based on historical trends and current weather forecasts.
Key risks/catalysts: Extreme weather events or unexpected climate anomalies.
Idea 2 — Long NO (Buy P(NO))
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 97¢ | Target: 100.5¢
Thesis: The substantial NO bid sizes suggest strong market confidence against low ice extent.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden meteorological shifts causing unusual ice melt.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:01 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Final National Snow & Ice Data Center measurements around early October 2025.
Sources
- National Snow & Ice Data Center — https://nsidc.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- NOAA — https://noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- World Meteorological Organization — https://wmo.int — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- National Weather Service — https://weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- Climate.gov — https://climate.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- Polar Research Journal — https://polarresearchjournal.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- European Space Agency — https://esa.int — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — https://ipcc.ch — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. — https://arcus.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
- U.S. Geological Survey — https://usgs.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:30 ET
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