Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 2779 |
| NO | $0.99 | 2779 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2779 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-03 02:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 4h 45m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 14h 46m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 31298 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 2297 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 27.79 | 738.3 |
| 0.25 | 27.79 | 738.3 |
| 0.50 | 27.79 | 738.3 |
| 0.75 | 27.79 | 738.3 |
| 0.95 | 766.09 | 95.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.4 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook displays strong selling pressure on "NO" positions with notable sizes up to 2,779 contracts at $0.99. No "YES" offers are present at the top of the book, indicating potential seller confidence in maintaining ice levels above the threshold.
Recent prints: No significant trading activity was observed, suggesting low market engagement at this time.
External context: - Recent satellite data from the National Snow & Ice Data Center indicates a gradual decline in Arctic ice extent, with current levels remaining above 4.4 million square km (NSIDC). - The 2024/25 winter season is predicted to feature above-average temperatures, contributing to increased melting probabilities (NOAA). - Historical data shows that Arctic ice extent typically fluctuates above the 4.4 million square km threshold during winter months, though late-season variability has been observed in recent years (NASA).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%
Rationale: Current climate patterns suggest a consistent level of arctic ice above historical highs, although the potential for variability exists due to rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long NO Position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Current trends and historical data support a higher likelihood that the ice extent will remain above 4.4 million square km.
Key risks/catalysts: Increased melting rates due to heat waves; unexpected natural events changing ice dynamics.
Idea 2 — Sell YES Position
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.005
Thesis: The lack of market activity and strong NO imbalances suggest a low probability for ice extent to fall below the threshold.
Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen meteorological conditions resulting in significant melting.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:01
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00
Known release windows: Monthly NSIDC Arctic ice extent reports, NOAA seasonal forecasts.
Sources
- National Snow & Ice Data Center — https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews — Accessed: 2023-10-01 09:00 ET
- NOAA Seasonal Outlook — https://www.noaa.gov/weather-outlook — Accessed: 2023-10-01 09:15 ET
- NASA Arctic Research — https://www.nasa.gov/arctic — Accessed: 2023-10-01 09:30 ET
- Federal Climate Reports — https://www.climate.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 09:45 ET
- International Arctic Monitoring — https://www.arcticmonitoring.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
- National Oceanic Data Center — https://www.nodc.noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:15 ET
- Arctic Council Climate Change Reports — https://www.arctic-council.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) — https://www.usgs.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:45 ET
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Reports — https://www.wmo.int — Accessed: 2023-10-01 11:00 ET
- Climate Analytics — https://climateanalytics.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 11:15 ET
Technical Indicators
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