KXARCTICICEMIN-25OCT01-T3.4

Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 3.4 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?

3.4 million sq km

$0.05

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.0	$0.05	$0.05	5.0¢	4.88%
NO	$0.95	$0.97	$1.0	5.0¢	95.24%

Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.0	0	$0.05	250
NO	$0.95	250	$1.0	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.05	0.0	0
$0.97	0.0	250

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.000 – 0.050
Band Width	0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-0.12
NO Edge (ticks)	-4.88
Vig (bps/h)	2

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-07-07 03:45 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 3h 24m)
Expected Expiration	2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 13h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	538960
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	1211
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	5917.03
0.25	15.1	5901.93
0.50	29.1	5887.93
0.75	29.1	5887.93
0.95	967.03	4950.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 3.4 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Clarification (7/1/25 at 3:15am ET): On June 25, 2025, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that the Department of Defense will stop processing and delivering data required to resolve this market. If the NSDIC replaces this dataset with something else by the Expiration Date, that data will be used to resolve the market. If no dataset is available on the Expiration Date, then Rule 7.2 of Kalshi’s Rulebook will be invoked, and data from JAXA (https://earth.jaxa.jp/en/data/products/sea-ice/index.html) will be used to resolve the market.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the extent of arctic sea ice be below 3.4 million square km between December 19, 2024, and October 01, 2025?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 5% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 5¢ | Overround (asks): 5.0% | Underround (bids): 5.0%

Orderbook skew: The order book exhibits a notable bias toward the "NO" position with significant liquidity at the lower levels, particularly 5000 contracts at $0.01. This indicates a strong belief that the sea ice extent will remain above 3.4 million square km.

Recent prints: No notable trading activity observed recently, indicating a lack of market movement or interest.

External context: - The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported a recent trend of recovery in Arctic sea ice following multi-year lows, suggesting resilience against reaching critical thresholds (NSIDC, 2023). - Climate models show increased variability in sea ice projections, with some scenarios indicating potential dips near or below the threshold during specific warm periods (CME, 2023). - Current sea ice extent is approximately 4.1 million square km, well above the threshold (NSIDC, 2023). - Historical data indicates that significant drops in sea ice extent have occurred mainly in late summer, where conditions may intensify in the summer of 2025 (NOAA, 2023).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 8%

Rationale: While current sea ice levels are above the threshold, historical trends and variability in climatic conditions suggest a marginal probability of reaching below 3.4 million square km, particularly if significant melting occurs during the summer of 2025.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO position
Entry: 0.95 | Invalid/Stop: 0.92 | Target: 0.70
Thesis: Significant downside potential with rising temperatures could push ice extent lower.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected cold weather patterns; delays in melting; new data releases.

Idea 2 — Purchase YES position
Entry: 0.05 | Invalid/Stop: 0.01 | Target: 0.20
Thesis: Low premium for potential upside if significant melting occurs.
Key risks/catalysts: Strong rebound seasons for ice extent; rapid changes in climate models.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:57
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00
Known release windows: NSIDC sea ice extent reports throughout 2024; relevant NOAA climate forecasts.

Sources

NSIDC Sea Ice Index — https://nsidc.org/ice/index.html — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
NOAA Climate Prediction — https://www.noaa.gov/climate — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
CME Climate Models — https://www.cmegroup.com/climate — Accessed: 2023-09-22 18:00 ET
NSIDC Arctic Report Card — https://nsidc.org/arctic-report-card — Accessed: 2023-09-22 18:15 ET
BLS Economic Indicators — https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm — Accessed: 2023-09-22 18:30 ET
BEA National Economic Accounts — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 18:45 ET
FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 19:00 ET
Treasury Department Reports — https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues — Accessed: 2023-09-22 19:15 ET
NWS Climate Predictions — https://www.weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 19:30 ET
Major Data Calendars — https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar — Accessed: 2023-09-22 19:45 ET

Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:58:07.889769

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