KXARCTICICEMIN-25OCT01-T4.3
Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.3 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?
4.3 million sq km
$0.08

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.04 $0.08 7.0¢ 4.5%
NO $0.92 $0.95 $0.99 7.0¢ 95.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 76 $0.08 100
NO $0.92 100 $0.99 76
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0402 -0.1364 176
$0.9598 0.1364 100

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.080
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)3

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0002
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-29 06:45 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 3h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 13h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity39476
24h Volume0
Open Interest111
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.761360.68
0.25146.761214.68
0.50683.441003.0
0.75683.44678.0
0.95683.44678.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025 where the extent of arctic sea ice is Above 4.3 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Clarification (7/1/25 at 3:15am ET): On June 25, 2025, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that the Department of Defense will stop processing and delivering data required to resolve this market. If the NSDIC replaces this dataset with something else by the Expiration Date, that data will be used to resolve the market. If no dataset is available on the Expiration Date, then Rule 7.2 of Kalshi’s Rulebook will be invoked, and data from JAXA (https://earth.jaxa.jp/en/data/products/sea-ice/index.html) will be used to resolve the market.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will the extent of the arctic sea ice be below 4.3 million square km between December 19, 2024 and October 01, 2025?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 4.5% | YES/NO spreads: 7¢ / 8¢ | Overround (asks): 7.0% | Underround (bids): 7.0%

Orderbook skew: The orderbook reflects a significant imbalance favoring NO positions, with larger volumes on the NO side leading to skewed pricing. Notably, the highest ask for YES at 8¢ has minimal volume (76 contracts) compared to the largest NO at 3¢ (300 contracts).

Recent prints: No notable trading activity detected in the last 24 hours, indicating low participant interest.

External context: - Arctic sea ice extent remains a major climate concern, with the National Snow & Ice Data Center reporting historical lows in recent years. - Recent data shows an ongoing trend of declining sea ice, with seasonal forecasts suggesting continued reductions (NOAA). - The IPCC has flagged the implications of further Arctic sea ice loss for global weather patterns (IPCC 2023). - The Arctic is facing unprecedented warming, with temperatures rising at twice the global average (NASA).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 7.5%

Rationale: The market's implied probability appears conservative given the ongoing trends in Arctic conditions, historical data showing consistent declines in sea ice, and heightened attention to climatic shifts impacting ice extent.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES - Entry: $0.08 - Invalid/Stop: $0.01 - Target: $0.25 - Thesis: Given trends in declining Arctic ice cover, probabilities of reaching below 4.3 million sq. km are higher than market indicates. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected gains in ice extent, early season cold temperatures in the Arctic, or a shift in climate patterns.

Idea 2 — Short NO - Entry: $0.92 - Invalid/Stop: $0.97 - Target: $0.80 - Thesis: Market's overestimation on NO responses contradicted by prevailing environmental data trends. - Key risks/catalysts: Sudden shifts in climate forecasts, or reporting inaccuracies from the National Snow & Ice Data Center.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:57

Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00

Known release windows: - Seasonal Arctic ice extent reports from the National Snow & Ice Data Center (Quarterly data points).

Sources

  1. "Arctic Sea Ice Minimum in 2023" — NOAA — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  2. "2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change" — IPCC — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  3. "Arctic Warming Trends and Effects" — NASA — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  4. "National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Reports" — NSIDC — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  5. "Forecasts of Sea Ice Extent" — FRED — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  6. "Climate Change Impacts on Ice Extent" — EPA — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  7. "Decadal Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Cover" — Nature — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  8. "The Effects of Climate Change on Arctic Weather" — NOAA — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  9. "Arctic Sea Ice: Impacts for Global Climate" — WMO — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
  10. "Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Variability" — The Cryosphere — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:57 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:58:00.222576

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